![]() However, the top of the rotation market saturation is potentially at its highest in years. ![]() That alone is a massive hurdle that the Cubs will have to pay their way past. Even after his “down year”, Arrieta is poised to be one of the hottest commodities on the free agent market this year. Arrieta and Boras have considerable amounts of leverage right now. I can’t foresee an in-season extension making sense. This begs the question: What factors come in to play to make an Arrieta extension palatable? With a lack of young, developed pitching depth, the Cubs will likely turn to outside sources-both in the free agent and trade markets-to fill their rotation gaps. They’re likely to have another pitcher under contract for next season, but it’s safe to say that the dynamics of the fifth rotation spot are yet to be fleshed out. Beyond this season, the Cubs only have two starters, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks, under contract. All in all, this is a class that boasts some strong depth and potentially a great top line as well.Ĭonversely, the Cubs are poised to be active in this market with or without Arrieta. And the possible presence of Shohei Otani in free agency would shake this market to its core. However, Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka may also opt out of their deals and seek “greener” pastures. Yu Darvish is the only other guaranteed free agent that pops out as a top of the rotation starter. Last year was a clear sign of his fatigue as his mechanics became less repeatable and he missed his spots more frequently. Finally, last year was Arrieta’s worst year as a Cub. He set himself a high bar, but a dip in performance is always a worry.Īrrieta is also poised to enter what could be a strong pitching class. The more extreme the step the more strain the muscles are put under. Arrieta’s cross-body stride takes quite a bit of core strength to maintain control and repeatability, which is less of a problem for someone who does this regularly. Second, questions have been raised on his mechanics. A long term deal would take him into his mid-to-late thirties, which would saddle the Cubs with some less-than-ideal years of his career at a high price. First, he enters his age 31 season this year. However, Arrieta’s detractors have no shortage of risk factors to be leery of outside of pitchers just being unpredictable. In many cases, this would be a slam dunk case, but Arrieta does have his warts. Over his Cubs career, he has been a 13.8 pWARP pitcher, won a Cy Young, and has been one of the more consistent players on the roster. He has unequivocally been a bargain for the Cubs, even as his salary grows to $15.6 million entering this season. Over his career with the Orioles and Cubs, he has earned about $16.3 million, which was stymied by the slow start to his career in Baltimore. Seeing a path to Jake Arrieta being in a Cubs uniform beyond this season is possible, but some sense has to be made of it.Īrrieta, who is a Scott Boras client, is poised to finally cash in on his spike in performance since joining the Cubs. Over the next few months, the idea of an extension will loom over both him and the Cubs. Others, like Arrieta, turn to their increasingly murky contract situations. ![]() Some are looked on as potential breakout stars or prospects. A player is suddenly in the best shape of their life. The first days of spring training are always ripe with storylines.
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